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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd