🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have piled up.

Per the data, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against United.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.